Live odds comparison

Polymarket vs Kalshi, compared live

Compare the same reviewed outcome using live order-book depth and estimated taker fees for a $100 all-in order on each venue.

Matched contracts today
32
Median saving · $100 all-in
11.15%
Polymarket cheaper
19
Kalshi cheaper
13

Counts cover all available matched outcome sides (Yes and No are separate rows) in this Router snapshot, not a daily average. Rows missing either venue's price are excluded. Snapshot: .

Live Polymarket and Kalshi price comparison

All-in cents are the effective price per payout unit, including estimated taker fees. Saving is the lower effective price relative to the higher one. Quotes can move before execution.

Up to 25 outcome sides, sorted by saving. A “long shot” badge flags either all-in price below 2¢ or above 98¢.
Outcome Polymarket all-in Kalshi all-in Cheaper venue Saving Details
Yes · Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot 0.10¢ 0.75¢ Polymarket 86.11% Quote details
Yes · Charles Leclerc is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot 0.32¢ 1.18¢ Polymarket 72.76% Quote details
Yes · Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 3.01¢ 8.51¢ Polymarket 64.61% Quote details
Yes · John Thune wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot 0.10¢ 0.21¢ Polymarket 51.40% Quote details
Yes · Jon Stewart wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination long shot 1.08¢ 0.56¢ Kalshi 48.37% Quote details
Yes · Lando Norris is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot 1.61¢ 2.60¢ Polymarket 37.90% Quote details
Yes · Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination 3.01¢ 4.69¢ Polymarket 35.83% Quote details
Yes · Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot 0.21¢ 0.32¢ Polymarket 35.18% Quote details
Yes · J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination long shot 1.56¢ 2.35¢ Polymarket 33.68% Quote details
Yes · Mark Kelly wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 3.12¢ 4.59¢ Polymarket 32.08% Quote details
Yes · Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination 16.13¢ 21.12¢ Polymarket 23.64% Quote details
Yes · Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 6.43¢ 5.01¢ Kalshi 22.06% Quote details
Yes · Lewis Hamilton is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot 1.52¢ 1.31¢ Kalshi 13.99% Quote details
Yes · Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 6.54¢ 7.56¢ Polymarket 13.57% Quote details
No · J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination 50.00¢ 57.73¢ Polymarket 13.39% Quote details
Yes · Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 15.84¢ 17.99¢ Polymarket 11.95% Quote details
Yes · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 18.90¢ 16.94¢ Kalshi 10.35% Quote details
Yes · J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination 52.10¢ 46.74¢ Kalshi 10.29% Quote details
Yes · Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 5.29¢ 5.65¢ Polymarket 6.34% Quote details
Yes · Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 15.82¢ 14.84¢ Kalshi 6.16% Quote details
No · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 82.40¢ 85.90¢ Polymarket 4.08% Quote details
No · Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination 85.02¢ 82.08¢ Kalshi 3.46% Quote details
Yes · Wes Moore wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 2.53¢ 2.46¢ Kalshi 3.01% Quote details
No · Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 85.32¢ 87.80¢ Polymarket 2.83% Quote details
No · Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination 97.41¢ 94.69¢ Kalshi 2.79% Quote details

How Polymarket and Kalshi differ

Fees as modeled by VoxOdds. Polymarket taker fees use shares × live fee rate × price × (1-price), summed over filled price levels. If the live fee rate is unavailable, the Router cannot show an all-in price. Kalshi fees use M × 0.07 × contracts × price × (1-price): M is zero for explicitly listed zero-taker-fee series and one otherwise. Kalshi quotes reserve whole-contract sizing and conservative per-level rounding. These are estimates; the venue order preview remains authoritative.

Prices and fills. The Router walks each venue's live order book for the same $100 all-in budget. Available depth and estimated fees affect the effective average price; displayed mid/last probabilities alone do not establish executable value.

Matching and resolution rules. VoxOdds pairs only explicitly human-reviewed equivalent contracts. Current questions and rules must match reviewed fingerprints. The check fails closed if equivalence cannot be verified, and both venues must fill the requested amount with fee estimates available. Similar titles alone are insufficient.

Access. Check venue eligibility and jurisdiction before trading. This comparison does not determine whether you can use either venue.

Frequently asked questions

Is Polymarket cheaper than Kalshi?

In today's Router snapshot of 32 matched contracts (outcome sides), Polymarket is cheaper on 19 and Kalshi on 13. The median saving in effective price is 11.15% for a $100 all-in order. This snapshot is not a daily average; prices can change.

Which has lower fees, Polymarket or Kalshi?

It depends on the contract and fill prices. VoxOdds models Polymarket taker fees as shares × live fee rate × price × (1-price). Kalshi uses M × 0.07 × contracts × price × (1-price), with M=0 for explicitly listed zero-taker-fee series and M=1 otherwise. Quotes include estimated taker fees and conservative Kalshi rounding; the venue order preview remains authoritative.

Are Polymarket and Kalshi odds the same?

Not necessarily. Each venue has its own order-book prices and available depth. For the same reviewed outcome, the effective price for a $100 all-in order can differ after estimated fees. Displayed probabilities are not executable quotes.

How does VoxOdds match the same contract on both venues?

Only explicitly human-reviewed pairs with equivalent resolution rules can enter the Outcome Router. VoxOdds checks the current questions and rules against the reviewed fingerprints and fails closed when equivalence cannot be verified. Similar titles alone do not qualify; both venues must also fill the requested amount with fee estimates available.

Can AI agents use this data?

Yes. AI agents can use the free MCP server at https://voxodds.com/mcp and the public API at https://voxodds.com/api/v1/executable-opportunities?amount_usd=100. Check venue eligibility and jurisdiction before trading.

Free MCP server · Public JSON API

Market-implied odds, not financial advice. Outbound venue links may carry referral tracking.

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