Live odds comparison
Polymarket vs Kalshi, compared live
Compare the same reviewed outcome using live order-book depth and estimated taker fees for a $100 all-in order on each venue.
Counts cover all available matched outcome sides (Yes and No are separate rows) in this Router snapshot, not a daily average. Rows missing either venue's price are excluded. Snapshot: .
The VoxOdds Gap Index is the median fee-inclusive saving on the cheaper venue across contracts matched on Polymarket and Kalshi, for a $100 all-in order. Long shots (an all-in price below 2¢ or above 98¢ on either venue) are excluded, because a fraction of a cent there reads as a huge percentage. This definition applies from 3 October 2026; earlier values included long shots.
Gap Index history
| Date | Index % |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | 6.7% |
| 2026-10-04 | 8.9% |
| 2026-10-05 | 7.8% |
| 2026-10-06 | 10.2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 8.7% |
| 2026-10-08 | 7.5% |
Live Polymarket and Kalshi price comparison
All-in cents are the effective price per payout unit, including estimated taker fees. Saving is the lower effective price relative to the higher one. Quotes can move before execution.
| Outcome | Polymarket all-in | Kalshi all-in | Cheaper venue | Saving | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes · Charles Leclerc is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot | 0.21¢ | 2.14¢ | Polymarket | 90.36% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot | 0.10¢ | 0.75¢ | Polymarket | 86.11% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Jon Stewart wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination long shot | 1.14¢ | 0.53¢ | Kalshi | 53.23% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · John Thune wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot | 0.10¢ | 0.21¢ | Polymarket | 51.40% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 3.05¢ | 6.22¢ | Polymarket | 51.01% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination long shot | 1.35¢ | 2.67¢ | Polymarket | 49.35% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Lewis Hamilton is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot | 1.17¢ | 2.14¢ | Polymarket | 45.36% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Lando Norris is the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Champion long shot | 0.60¢ | 1.07¢ | Polymarket | 43.76% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Mark Kelly wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 2.70¢ | 4.45¢ | Polymarket | 39.24% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | 2.91¢ | 4.40¢ | Polymarket | 33.95% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot | 0.52¢ | 0.35¢ | Kalshi | 32.97% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot | 0.63¢ | 0.43¢ | Kalshi | 31.87% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 18.59¢ | 14.84¢ | Kalshi | 20.15% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 18.49¢ | 14.84¢ | Kalshi | 19.71% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 6.23¢ | 5.01¢ | Kalshi | 19.47% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 15.61¢ | 17.99¢ | Polymarket | 13.21% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | 15.72¢ | 17.99¢ | Polymarket | 12.64% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| No · J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | 52.50¢ | 59.71¢ | Polymarket | 12.07% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 7.98¢ | 8.90¢ | Polymarket | 10.35% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination long shot | 0.21¢ | 0.23¢ | Polymarket | 9.96% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | 49.60¢ | 45.61¢ | Kalshi | 8.05% |
Open on Kalshi → Quote details |
| Yes · Wes Moore wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 2.18¢ | 2.33¢ | Polymarket | 6.27% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| No · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 82.69¢ | 87.80¢ | Polymarket | 5.82% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| No · Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 82.79¢ | 87.80¢ | Polymarket | 5.71% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
| Yes · Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | 5.29¢ | 5.44¢ | Polymarket | 2.68% |
Open on Polymarket → Quote details |
Buttons open the cheaper venue for that row. Links may carry referral tracking.
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polymarket-kalshi-price-gaps on GitHubCite as: VoxOdds, "Polymarket vs Kalshi price gaps (daily open dataset)".
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<a href="https://voxodds.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi"><img src="https://voxodds.com/og/polymarket-vs-kalshi.png" alt="VoxOdds Gap Index: live Polymarket vs Kalshi price gap, fees included" width="600"></a>Markdown
[](https://voxodds.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi)How Polymarket and Kalshi differ
Fees as modeled by VoxOdds. Polymarket taker fees use shares × live fee rate × price × (1-price), summed over filled price levels. If the live fee rate is unavailable, the Router cannot show an all-in price. Kalshi fees use M × 0.07 × contracts × price × (1-price): M is zero for explicitly listed zero-taker-fee series and one otherwise. Kalshi quotes reserve whole-contract sizing and conservative per-level rounding. These are estimates; the venue order preview remains authoritative.
Prices and fills. The Router walks each venue's live order book for the same $100 all-in budget. Available depth and estimated fees affect the effective average price; displayed mid/last probabilities alone do not establish executable value.
Matching and resolution rules. VoxOdds pairs only explicitly human-reviewed equivalent contracts. Current questions and rules must match reviewed fingerprints. The check fails closed if equivalence cannot be verified, and both venues must fill the requested amount with fee estimates available. Similar titles alone are insufficient.
Access. Check venue eligibility and jurisdiction before trading. This comparison does not determine whether you can use either venue.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket cheaper than Kalshi?
In today's Router snapshot of 37 matched contracts (outcome sides), Polymarket is cheaper on 25 and Kalshi on 12. Excluding long shots, the median saving in effective price is 8.05% for a $100 all-in order (21 sides). This snapshot is not a daily average; prices can change.
Which has lower fees, Polymarket or Kalshi?
It depends on the contract and fill prices. VoxOdds models Polymarket taker fees as shares × live fee rate × price × (1-price). Kalshi uses M × 0.07 × contracts × price × (1-price), with M=0 for explicitly listed zero-taker-fee series and M=1 otherwise. Quotes include estimated taker fees and conservative Kalshi rounding; the venue order preview remains authoritative.
Are Polymarket and Kalshi odds the same?
Not necessarily. Each venue has its own order-book prices and available depth. For the same reviewed outcome, the effective price for a $100 all-in order can differ after estimated fees. Displayed probabilities are not executable quotes.
How does VoxOdds match the same contract on both venues?
Only explicitly human-reviewed pairs with equivalent resolution rules can enter the Outcome Router. VoxOdds checks the current questions and rules against the reviewed fingerprints and fails closed when equivalence cannot be verified. Similar titles alone do not qualify; both venues must also fill the requested amount with fee estimates available.
Can AI agents use this data?
Yes. AI agents can use the free MCP server at https://voxodds.com/mcp and the public API at https://voxodds.com/api/v1/executable-opportunities?amount_usd=100. Check venue eligibility and jurisdiction before trading.
What is the VoxOdds Gap Index?
The VoxOdds Gap Index is the median fee-inclusive saving on the cheaper venue across contracts matched on Polymarket and Kalshi, for a $100 all-in order. Long shots (an all-in price below 2¢ or above 98¢ on either venue) are excluded, because a fraction of a cent there reads as a huge percentage. This definition applies from 3 October 2026; earlier values included long shots. Today's value is 8.1%.
Market-implied odds, not financial advice. Outbound venue links may carry referral tracking.