Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
Vol. 24h
$55095
Dies
913
Referència
YES 1.1%
Ara
YES 1.1%
Moviment
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
Puntuació de tesi
100/100
Edge 100/100, confidence 67/100, risk 42/100
Proper pas
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Cas base
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Disciplina d'entrada
Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 86.2pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Confirma abans de dimensionar
YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.
Gross spread is 91.4pp.
Low integrity-risk score.
Bloquejadors
Limited side volume: $2,411.
Expiry mismatch: 25 days.
Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Invalidació
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Punts a vigilar
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.