US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
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NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -37.0pp across 49 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 25.5% / NO 74.5% with a setup score of 100/100.
YES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
Cyf. 24h
$3042266
Dyddiau
4
Cyfeirnod
NO 74.5%
Nawr
NO 74.5%
Symudiad
+0.0 pp
Edge tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
Sgôr thesis
100/100
Edge 100/100, confidence 69/100, risk 24/100
Cam nesaf
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
pending
Rules match the thesis
Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.
pending
Depth is real
Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.
pending
Catalyst confirmed
Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.
Achos sylfaenol
Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.
Disgyblaeth mynediad
Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.
Cadarnhewch cyn maint
NO moved -37.0pp across 49 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.
Rhwystrau
Integrity flags: close to close.
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Annilysu
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Pethau i'w gwylio
Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.
Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.
Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.
VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan.