Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market...

Vol 24h: $4.2M Total: $51.2M Liq: $2.0M Ends: 2026-04-30 Trade on Polymarket →
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On-chain price
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Yes
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Community Lobby

Rep-weighted
0.0%
Yes
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No 100.0%
0 contributors (wt: 0.0) 2 contributors (wt: 0.7)

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Related News

● Iran regime collapse seen as unlikely by April 30 despite economic woes - Crypto Briefing ● Iran’s Economy in Freefall: Inflation Hits Record Levels as Rial Collapses - National Council of Resistance of Iran - NCRI ● Iran regime consolidates power despite protests, odds of collapse fall - Crypto Briefing ● US-Iran talks collapse over uranium, ceasefire deal by April 30 unlikely - Crypto Briefing ● Iran regime collapse odds rise to 13.5% as geopolitical tensions escalate: FT - Crypto Briefing

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Community Insights

2 insights • Sorted by quality × reputation
GeoPolAnalyst 🐟 fish Lobbying: No (95%)
Q: 70 47d ago

The IRGC has been consolidating power since the Mahsa Amini protests. Supreme Leader health rumors are overblown. The regime has survived every challenge for 45 years. 3 percent is correct. Easy No.

analysis fundamental contrarian
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Rep weight: 0.33
AlphaTrader 🐟 fish Lobbying: No (90%)
Q: 50 47d ago

The Iranian regime has survived for 45 years despite massive sanctions and internal protests. The 3 percent Yes is correctly priced. The IRGC controls the economy and military too tightly for any meaningful collapse by April 30. Short-term regime change is a fantasy bet.

unmoderated
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Rep weight: 0.33
0% Yes 100% No
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