Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement r...

Vol 24h: $63.1K Total: $2.0M Liq: $97.5K Ends: 2026-11-01 Trade on Polymarket → Perps
4%
Yes
96%
No
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4%
Yes
96%
No

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88% No AI estimate that the answer is No · market says 96%

Given the deeply entrenched military positions, maximalist political goals on both sides, and a window of under two months, negotiating and finalizing a formal ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026 is highly improbable.

At an 18%

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4% Yes 96% No
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