Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (F...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the broader macroeconomic trajectory and late-cycle dynamics anticipated for 2026, the Federal Reserve is far more likely to hold or continue easing rather than resume rate hikes.
With strong 24-hour liquidity of $473,998, the market's 86% "No" reflects the prevailing macroeconomic consensus of an ongoing easing cycle rather than a sudden pivot back to rate hikes by late 2026. Given the high capital lockup time for a 16% gross return on "No," investors should avoid tying up capital and instead selectively look to sell overreactions on "Yes" only if intermediate inflation spikes temporarily inflate those odds.
News Impact
AI-analyzedHotter-than-expected inflation increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated or consider rate hikes, raising the odds of a 25 bps increase.
Global equity selloffs driven by hot US CPI data reinforce expectations of hawkish Fed policy action.
Financial markets actively pricing in rate-hike worries directly increases the perceived probability of future Fed rate increases.
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