Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announce...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Hamas has consistently rejected disarming and views its armed wing as essential to its political and ideological goals, making a voluntary disarmament by December 31 highly improbable.
Edge: The market's 'Yes' probability of 88% seems unrealistically high given Hamas's historical stance and current geopolitical realities; I believe the 'No' outcome is much more certain.
The market's overwhelming "Yes" at 88% suggests a high conviction among participants that Hamas will agree to disarm, potentially indicating perceived political or military pressures that would force such a concession. For investors, the low "No" probability of 12% offers a compelling asymmetric bet if you believe there's a significant, underpriced chance Hamas will *not* disarm (due to ideological commitment, strategic reasons, or a desire to maintain power), as a "No" outcome would yield a substantial return.
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