Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market w...

Vol 24h: $119.5K Total: $1.4M Liq: $102.5K Ends: 2026-07-17 Trade on Polymarket →
2%
Yes
98%
No
Market tracker

Save this market to your VoxOdds watchlist. We use market follows and outbound demand to decide which setups deserve deeper research notes.

Watchlist

Polymarket Odds

On-chain price
2%
Yes
98%
No

Community Lobby

Rep-weighted
No community predictions yet. Be the first to lobby!

What do you think?

Make your prediction — see how the crowd voted after

Anonymous • One vote per person

Share: Twitter/X Reddit
AI
AI Analysis Gemini
99%
AI estimate

Given today's date is July 17, 2026, and no such announcement has been made, it is highly improbable for an announcement to occur 'by' this date.

This market presents an **attractive arbitrage opportunity** for investors willing to take the "Yes" side and immediately sell "No" at a slightly lower price, as the 2% "Yes" probability is unrealistically low given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the nature of negotiations. Investors should consider taking the "Yes" side, as even a small positive movement in the probability will yield significant returns, and the low "Yes" odds likely reflect a lack of informed participants rather than a true reflection of the outcome.

Embed this market </>

Share Your Insight

Set a username in the top nav to start sharing insights.

Community Insights

0 insights • Sorted by quality × reputation

No insights yet

Be the first to share your take on this market.

2% Yes 98% No
Trade on Polymarket

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.