Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market w...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given today's date is July 17, 2026, and no such announcement has been made, it is highly improbable for an announcement to occur 'by' this date.
This market presents an **attractive arbitrage opportunity** for investors willing to take the "Yes" side and immediately sell "No" at a slightly lower price, as the 2% "Yes" probability is unrealistically low given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the nature of negotiations. Investors should consider taking the "Yes" side, as even a small positive movement in the probability will yield significant returns, and the low "Yes" odds likely reflect a lack of informed participants rather than a true reflection of the outcome.
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