Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the current date is July 24, 2026, and no military action has occurred, it is highly improbable for it to happen within the market's timeframe.
Edge: The market odds of 81% 'Yes' are impossible given the market's end date has already passed without the event occurring.
The market's high "Yes" probability (81%) suggests investors anticipate a significant likelihood of Saudi military action against Yemen by July 2026, implying an elevated geopolitical risk for companies with operations or supply chain dependencies in the region. Given the substantial volume, consider hedging against potential disruptions to oil prices or maritime shipping routes, as a "Yes" outcome could trigger market volatility.
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