US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market c...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the current date is July 24, 2026, and no ceasefire has been announced, it is highly improbable for one to effectively begin and be recognized on this exact day.
This market presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors believing a ceasefire is plausible despite current geopolitical tensions, as the 2% "Yes" odds offer significant upside if a black swan event occurs. Conversely, the overwhelming 98% "No" odds suggest a strong consensus of continued conflict, making a bet on "Yes" a long shot that requires a contrarian view and tolerance for near-certain loss.
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