Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the ev...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Shanghai's August temperatures are consistently above 28°C, making it highly improbable for 28°C to be the highest temperature on any given day.
Edge: The market's 'Yes' probability of 96% seems to be a misinterpretation or error, as 28°C is a very low high temperature for Shanghai in August.
The extreme "Yes" odds (96%) suggest this market is highly illiquid and likely being used for something other than genuine price discovery, such as a prop bet or a mechanism to transfer funds, making it unsuitable for investors seeking an actual temperature prediction. Investors should avoid this market due to the high risk of manipulation or lack of genuine trading interest, which could lead to significant slippage or an inability to exit positions at a fair price if they were to try and bet against the consensus.
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