S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, August 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most re...

Vol 24h: $113.7K Total: $117.4K Liq: $5.6K Ends: 2026-08-10 Trade on Polymarket →
4%
Up
96%
Down
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On-chain price
4%
Up
96%
Down

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AI
AI Analysis Gemini
50%
AI estimate

Given the market is open on August 10, 2026, and the current date is also August 10, 2026, the market's movement for the day is already determined.

Edge: The market odds of 4% Up and 96% Down for a market that has already closed (or is about to close on the same day) are highly unusual and suggest a misunderstanding or a very specific event, making a 50/50 split more reasonable if the outcome is truly unknown to the market participants at the time of these odds.

AI DISAGREES

This market indicates an extreme bearish sentiment for the S&P 500 on August 10th, with a 96% implied probability of a downturn. Investors should consider shorting SPX or purchasing inverse ETFs if they believe this sentiment is likely to materialize, while those with a contrarian view could buy "Up" contracts for a high-risk, high-reward bet, but be aware of the extremely low probability priced in.

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4% Up 96% Down
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