Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for pa...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
The target resolution date of September 30, 2026, has passed without Iran instituting transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz.
With the market pricing a near-zero probability (1% "Yes") and the September 30 deadline imminent, unilaterally imposing Hormuz transit fees remains an extreme tail-risk event that Iran is unlikely to trigger due to immediate military and diplomatic escalation risks. Investors should avoid locking up capital on the 99% "No" side given the negligible yield, but could consider deploying a minimal, asymmetric hedge on "Yes" only if looking for cheap, high-payout exposure to sudden geopolitical disruption.
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