S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 26?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most...

Vol 24h: $101.5K Total: $101.6K Liq: $1.6K Ends: 2026-08-26 Trade on Polymarket → Perps
90%
Up
10%
Down
Market tracker

Save this market to your VoxOdds watchlist. We use market follows and outbound demand to decide which setups deserve deeper research notes.

Watchlist

Polymarket Odds

On-chain price
90%
Up
10%
Down

Community Lobby

Rep-weighted
No community predictions yet. Be the first to lobby!

What do you think?

Make your prediction — see how the crowd voted after

Anonymous • One vote per person

Share: Twitter/X Reddit
AI
AI Analysis Gemini
90%
AI estimate

Given the current intraday pricing reflecting strong certainty near market close on August 26, the S&P 500 is overwhelmingly likely to finish the session positive.

With the "Up" contract heavily priced in at 90% and supported by strong liquidity, buying "Up" offers minimal upside (a ~11% return) relative to the extreme tail risk of an intraday market reversal. Investors should either avoid taking the consensus long position due to the poor risk-reward ratio or consider a small, speculative hedge on the mispriced 10% "Down" contract to capitalize on unexpected negative catalysts.

Embed this market </>

Related News

Share Your Insight

Set a username in the top nav to start sharing insights.

Community Insights

0 insights • Sorted by quality × reputation

No insights yet

Be the first to share your take on this market.

90% Up 10% Down
Trade on Polymarket

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.