Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e....

Vol 24h: $0 Total: $146.7M Liq: $6.4M Ends: 2026-07-20 Trade on Polymarket →
100%
Yes
0%
No
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Save this market to your VoxOdds watchlist. We use market follows and outbound demand to decide which setups deserve deeper research notes.

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On-chain price
100%
Yes
0%
No

Community Lobby

Rep-weighted
100.0%
Yes
0.0%
No
Yes 100.0%
1 contributor (wt: 0.3) 0 contributors (wt: 0.0)

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AI
AI Analysis Gemini
70%
AI estimate

While Spain has a strong team, the FIFA World Cup is highly competitive, and even top contenders face significant challenges and unpredictable outcomes.

Edge: I believe the market is overestimating Spain's chances; 65% is too high given the inherent unpredictability and strength of other national teams in a World Cup.

AI DISAGREES

The market's strong "Yes" odds at 65% suggest investors price in a high probability of Spain winning, making a "No" position attractive for those believing the implied 35% chance of *any* other team winning is undervalued, particularly given the long lead time and inherent unpredictability of international tournaments. Considering the high trading volume, investors should be wary of potential overconfidence in Spain, and investigate historical data on long-shot favorites and the impact of future events (injuries, new talent) on similar markets.

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Community Insights

1 insights • Sorted by quality × reputation
FutbolGuru 🐟 fish Lobbying: Yes (85%)
Q: 50 137d ago

Spain are the defending Euro champions with arguably the best young core in world football. Yamal Pedri and Rodri form a generational midfield. At 18 percent this is massive value. I am going heavy Yes.

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Rep weight: 0.33
100% Yes 0% No
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