Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?
With a 96% implied probability and strong $254k daily volume, buying "Up" offers an asymmetric, low-yield risk profile of risking $0.96 to make $0.04 into the September 30 deadline. Investors should avoid chasing the crowded "Up" side and instead look for a cheap, high-convexity hedge by allocating a small amount to "Down" at 4% to capture massive upside in the event of an unexpected market flash-crash.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly
Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.
Market resolves: 2026-09-30