Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Given the low 14% implied probability and strong $856k liquidity, the market heavily discounts the Clarity Act passing in a midterm election year, likely due to expected partisan gridlock and packed legislative calendars. **Actionable takeaway:** Look to buy "No" on any temporary sentiment-driven spikes above 18–20% to lock in an asymmetric yield, or sell "Yes" shares immediately if holding, as capital is better deployed elsewhere given the high opportunity cost through 2026.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
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Market resolves: 2027-01-01