Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
The low "Yes" probability of 14% suggests a strong market belief that the Clarity Act will not be signed into law by 2026, making a "No" position attractive for investors who agree with the market consensus and seek to profit from its high likelihood. Conversely, a "Yes" position, while having a low probability, could yield significant returns for investors with a contrarian view and strong evidence that the market is mispricing the bill's chances, but this is a high-risk, high-reward bet.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
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Market resolves: 2027-01-01