Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Given Elon Musk's highly volatile posting behavior and the extremely narrow target window, the 2% probability for "Yes" is fair, making the 98% "No" side an inefficient trade that locks up capital for negligible returns. Investors should avoid taking a position here and instead deploy liquidity into broader range markets or closer-dated contracts with better risk-adjusted yields.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by
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Market resolves: 2026-08-21