Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
With only a 3% implied probability and nearly two years until resolution, capital is far too constrained to justify locking up funds for a meager 3% return on the "No" side. Investors should avoid taking a position now, but monitor Musk's daily posting baseline closer to September 2026 to exploit mispriced probability ranges across related tweet-count brackets.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be capture
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Market resolves: 2026-09-11