Fed rate hike in 2026?
The market's 62% "Yes" on a 2026 Fed rate hike, coupled with high volume, suggests investors are pricing in a significant likelihood of sustained inflation or stronger-than-expected economic growth necessitating tighter policy. For a contrarian play, consider selling "Yes" contracts if you believe disinflationary pressures or a recession are more likely, as the 38% "No" implies a potential mispricing of this less-consensus outcome.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.feder
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Market resolves: 2026-12-09