Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
The extremely high "Yes" odds (95%) and significant 24-hour volume ($650,480) suggest the market has priced in a near certainty of the ceasefire continuing, making a "Yes" bet offer minimal upside for the risk of an unforeseen event. Investors seeking to capitalize on a low-probability, high-impact event could consider a small "No" bet, as any ceasefire breach would lead to substantial returns, while acknowledging the high likelihood of losing the premium.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-08-01