Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
The market's overwhelming 97% "Yes" for a ceasefire continuing through August 3 suggests investors believe the probability of an immediate, full-scale military conflict escalating within the next two months is extremely low. Given the high volume and near-certainty, this market offers little actionable upside for "Yes" bets but could present a highly asymmetric, though very low probability, opportunity for "No" bets if new, unforeseen geopolitical events rapidly emerge.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-08-03