Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
The market's overwhelming 94% "Yes" odds suggest investors are pricing in a near certainty of the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 22nd, implying little perceived risk of escalation. For those who believe even a small chance of renewed conflict exists (e.g., 10% or more), buying "No" at 6% offers a high-reward, low-probability bet against current market consensus.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-07-22