Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
This market presents a high-risk, low-reward proposition for investors, as the 99% "Yes" odds mean a correct bet yields only a 1% profit, making it unattractive even for those confident in continued ceasefire. The substantial daily volume of over $420,000 suggests significant capital is tied up in a bet with minimal upside, indicating either a strong desire for hedging or an inefficient allocation of capital by some participants.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-07-24