Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
This market suggests an extremely high probability (98%) of the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 25th, indicating a strong consensus among participants. Given the low potential return and substantial volume, investors should consider this a low-risk, low-reward "safe" bet if they believe the ceasefire will indeed continue, or a high-risk, high-reward opportunity to bet against the market (at 2%) if they possess specific, compelling information suggesting an imminent breakdown.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.
Market resolves: 2026-07-25