Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
The market's overwhelming 98% "Yes" odds, coupled with significant trading volume, indicates a strong consensus that the ceasefire will hold, suggesting limited upside for betting "Yes" and high risk for "No." Investors should consider this market a low-probability, high-impact event for "No," and potentially an opportunity to hedge other long-Israel or long-Iran positions if a "No" outcome would significantly impact their portfolio.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-07-26