Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
This market presents an **asymmetric, high-risk opportunity** for investors who believe traffic *will* return to normal, as the 3% "Yes" price offers a 32x return if proven correct, despite the market's strong bearish sentiment. Conversely, the high volume and 97% "No" price suggest that shorting "Yes" is **not an actionable strategy for significant returns** due to the minimal profit potential and high risk of a black swan event causing a sudden price reversal.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-da
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Market resolves: 2026-08-15