Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
With "Yes" at 57% and "No" at 42%, the market currently prices a slight probability of normalcy, suggesting investors anticipate some lingering disruptions or a low-grade risk premium remaining. For a "No" investor, selling at 42% offers a favorable exit if you believe the market is underestimating the likelihood of continued instability, while "Yes" investors might consider selling if they believe the odds of full normalcy are overstated given the inherent volatility of the region.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-
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Market resolves: 2026-12-31