US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
The market currently prices a 36% chance of the US ending the Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026, suggesting a significant hurdle for resolution within that timeframe. Investors should consider the geopolitical complexity and the unlikelihood of a quick resolution, potentially shorting "Yes" if they believe the 64% "No" odds still understate the difficulty of such a rapid shift in policy and international relations.
About this market
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
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Market resolves: 2026-08-07