US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
This market indicates extremely low investor confidence (2%) in the US lifting the Iranian blockade by August 2026, despite significant trading volume suggesting high awareness. Investors should consider the overwhelming "No" probability as a strong signal against any near-term softening of US-Iran relations, and adjust their portfolio exposure to companies or sectors sensitive to such a geopolitical shift accordingly.
About this market
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
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Market resolves: 2026-08-07