US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
At a 96% implied probability and strong $200k+ daily liquidity, the "No" share offers a reliable ~4.1% nominal yield for low-risk capital, as current geopolitical trajectories make a formal US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough highly improbable by late 2026. However, given the long lockup period through October 2026, active investors should bypass the sub-optimal annualized returns on "No" and instead hold cash to scalp high-volatility spikes on "Yes" during transient diplomatic rumor cycles.
About this market
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
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Market resolves: 2026-10-16