US recession by end of 2026?

Current Prediction Market Odds Updated hourly
16%
Yes
84%
No
Volume 24h: $189.6K Total volume: $1.9M Liquidity: $99.5K

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the ann

Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.

Market resolves: 2027-01-31

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.