US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Given the overwhelming 92% odds against an effective ceasefire by July 31st, investors should avoid betting on "Yes" as the market strongly signals a high probability of continued conflict or lack of a robust agreement. Instead, this market's strong "No" consensus, coupled with significant trading volume, suggests a potential opportunity to profit by selling "Yes" shares if you believe the market is accurately pricing the geopolitical reality, thereby capitalizing on the high likelihood of the "No" outcome.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs thr
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Market resolves: 2026-07-31