Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Given the high 24-hour volume of over $519,000 providing ample liquidity, the 4% pricing for "Yes" offers an asymmetrical, cheap geopolitical tail-risk hedge against broader portfolio exposure in semiconductor and emerging market assets. Unless you are specifically hedging against this conflict, the 96% "No" side offers too low of an annualized capital yield (under 2% over nearly two years) to justify locking up your capital.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Natio
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Market resolves: 2027-01-01