Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
This market presents a compelling long-shot opportunity for investors: the "Yes" side is significantly undervalued at 3%, given Trump's unpredictable nature and historical tendency to insult allies and adversaries alike, making a public insult to Putin by 2026 far more likely than the implied odds suggest. Investors should consider a small, speculative "Yes" position, as the potential payout if Trump's behavior deviates even slightly from the market's extreme "No" confidence offers an asymmetric risk/reward profile.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory persona
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Market resolves: 2026-07-31