Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
At an implied 85% probability, this market is heavily mispriced due to extreme political volatility, incumbent advantages, and Flávio Bolsonaro not even being the undisputed leader of the Brazilian right. Investors should immediately take the **"No" at 15% (yielding a potential ~566% ROI)**, exploiting the deep $1.9M liquidity to hedge or fade an overextended sentiment trade nearly two years before the election.
About this market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely
Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.
Market resolves: 2026-10-05