Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Investors should consider shorting "Yes" or buying "No" if they believe there's any chance of a rate cut by September 2026, as the market is pricing in near certainty against it, potentially offering significant upside if a cut occurs. Conversely, if you strongly believe the Fed will maintain or increase rates, the "No" side offers very limited profit given the 97% odds, making it a high-conviction, low-return play unless you're using it to hedge other positions.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed
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Market resolves: 2026-09-16