Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
With 99% odds on "No" and high 24-hour liquidity of $318,158, the market reflects near-certain consensus that the Fed will not deliver an aggressive 50+ bps hike in late 2026. Given the sub-1% yield on "No," investors should avoid tying up capital for minimal return and instead look for mispriced "Yes" contracts only as an ultra-cheap, highly speculative tail-risk hedge against an extreme inflationary resurgence.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed op
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Market resolves: 2026-10-29