Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
This market's 5
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally differe
What the crowd thinks
Expert Analysis (2)
The IRGC has been consolidating power since the Mahsa Amini protests. Supreme Leader health rumors are overblown. The regime has survived every challenge for 45 years. 3 percent is correct. Easy No.
The Iranian regime has survived for 45 years despite massive sanctions and internal protests. The 3 percent Yes is correctly priced. The IRGC controls the economy and military too tightly for any meaningful collapse by April 30. Short-term regime change is a fantasy bet.
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Market resolves: 2026-04-30