US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
The extremely high "Yes" odds (95%) suggest the market has priced in a near certainty of a halt, offering little upside for a "Yes" bet and significant downside if the event doesn't occur. Smart money would look for value in a "No" bet, despite the low probability, as a successful outcome would yield a substantial return on a small investment, especially given the $777k daily volume implying liquidity for larger positions.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations
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Market resolves: 2026-08-31