Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
At a 16% implied probability, the market significantly overprices a full-scale U.S. invasion by 2027, given the immense logistical hurdles, lack of domestic political appetite, and Pentagon doctrine favoring standoff strikes over ground occupation. Investors should take the "No" side at 84% (offering a ~19% return) to exploit the high $410k liquidity pool and capture yield against an overly alarmist tail-risk scenario.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.
Market resolves: 2027-01-01