Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
The current market, with only 28% for "Yes," suggests investors overwhelmingly believe a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 is unlikely. Savvy investors could consider selling "Yes" contracts if they believe the odds of invasion are even lower than 28%, or buying "No" contracts if they perceive the 72% probability of no invasion as undervalued given the geopolitical landscape.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Market resolves: 2026-12-31