Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Investors should consider buying "Yes" if they believe the geopolitical landscape, particularly with a potential change in U.S. administration, makes a military intervention more likely than the market's implied 28% probability. Conversely, those confident in the current administration's diplomatic approach and the high economic and human cost of such a conflict should consider selling "Yes" (or buying "No") as the market may be overstating the likelihood of an invasion given the current geopolitical climate.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Market resolves: 2026-12-31