Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
With a 99% "No" and significant volume, the market overwhelmingly predicts Carlson will *not* win the 2028 GOP nomination, suggesting investors should avoid betting on his victory and potentially consider shorting related speculative assets if they exist. The 1% "Yes" represents a high-risk, high-reward long shot that is likely overvalued given the market's strong conviction against it, making it an unattractive investment unless new, highly disruptive information emerges.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Market resolves: 2028-11-07