China Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Alina Charaeva
Given the 99% implied probability and massive $465k 24-hour volume, this market reflects a nearly concluded match or an insurmountable late-stage lead for Alina Charaeva. Investors should avoid taking Charaeva’s 99% position due to poor risk-to-reward ratio and high capital lockup, and only consider a micro-stake on Starodubtseva at 1% as a speculative lottery ticket against an extreme black-swan event.
About this market
This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Starodubtseva and Alina Charaeva in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yulia Starodubtseva' if Yulia Starodubtseva advances against Alina Charaeva. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Yulia Starodubtseva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM
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Market resolves: 2026-10-07