Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
At 97%, the "No" shares offer an annualized return too meager to justify locking up capital against the tail risks of a 72-year-old autocrat's sudden health crisis, coup, or war escalation over a nearly two-year horizon. Investors should bypass buying "No" and instead look to buy deeply discounted "Yes" shares at 3% as an asymmetrical, high-reward hedge against Russian political instability.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position
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Market resolves: 2027-01-01