Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
The market's overwhelming "Yes" at 88% suggests a high conviction among participants that Hamas will agree to disarm, potentially indicating perceived political or military pressures that would force such a concession. For investors, the low "No" probability of 12% offers a compelling asymmetric bet if you believe there's a significant, underpriced chance Hamas will *not* disarm (due to ideological commitment, strategic reasons, or a desire to maintain power), as a "No" outcome would yield a substantial return.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrende
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Market resolves: 2026-12-31