Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
The market's 64% "Yes" for Hamas disarming by year-end appears significantly mispriced given current geopolitical realities and Hamas's stated ideology, suggesting a strong "No" position is a profitable trade. Investors should consider shorting "Yes" or buying "No" shares to capitalize on this apparent overestimation of a peaceful resolution within the specified timeframe.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrende
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Market resolves: 2026-12-31