Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Current Prediction Market Odds Updated hourly
0%
Yes
100%
No
Volume 24h: $1.1M Total volume: $28.9M Liquidity: $1.7M

About this market

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed optio

What the crowd thinks

Market Price
0% Yes 100% No
Community Pulse
0% Yes 100% No

Expert Analysis (1)

MacroHawk fish Predicts: No

The Fed has zero chance of cutting 50bps in April. Powell explicitly said they need more data on inflation. CPI is still above target and tariffs are adding price pressure. Even 25bps is unlikely before June. This market is correctly priced near zero.

Think you have an edge? Share your analysis or trade this market.

Market resolves: 2026-04-29

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.