Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The market is overwhelmingly pricing in no significant rate cuts by September 2026, suggesting investors believe the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy or implement only minor adjustments. Given the low "Yes" probability, a bet on "Yes" could offer substantial returns if economic conditions deteriorate sharply and unexpectedly, forcing the Fed's hand, but this is a high-risk, low-probability wager.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed
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Market resolves: 2026-09-16