Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
With a high 24-hour volume of nearly $170k driving the "Yes" contract to 74%, the market is aggressively pricing in a single quarter-point hike over two years out—an unusually high-conviction stance given the extreme macro uncertainty and long time horizon. Investors should consider taking the "No" position at 26%, exploiting an asymmetric risk-reward profile where any outcome other than an exact 25 bps increase (including holds, cuts, or a 50 bps hike) yields a roughly 3.8x payout.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed o
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Market resolves: 2026-12-09