Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Investors are currently leaning towards a 25 bps rate hike by September 2026, but the relatively even odds (56% Yes vs. 44% No) suggest significant uncertainty and potential for profit on either side if you have a strong conviction about future economic conditions or Fed policy. Given the high daily volume, this market offers good liquidity for entering or exiting positions, making it suitable for both short-term tactical plays on economic data releases and longer-term strategic bets on inflation and growth forecasts.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed
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Market resolves: 2026-09-16