Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Given the low 3% probability, holding "No" offers a nearly guaranteed but capital-inefficient ~3% return over two years, while the robust $272k 24-hour volume provides ample liquidity for market makers to capture the spread. Investors should avoid tying up capital in "No" unless seeking a marginal cash-yield alternative, and only buy "Yes" as an ultra-cheap, asymmetrical hedge on global macro disruption.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will
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Market resolves: 2027-01-01