Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
The market currently prices a 62% chance of a rate change by September 2026, implying investors anticipate further Fed action, likely cuts, given the long horizon and current economic outlook. If you believe the Fed will maintain the current rate for a prolonged period, the "Yes" at 38% offers a potential undervalued bet, but recognize the market's strong conviction against it.
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed
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Market resolves: 2026-09-16